With just a month until New Jersey’s gubernatorial election, Dean Stuart Shapiro sits down with Kristoffer Shields, Director of Eagleton Institute’s Center on the American Governor, for a special pre-gubernatorial debate episode of EJB Talks. They discuss how the race between Mikie Sherrill (D) and Jack Ciattarelli (R) has so far unfolded cautiously, the slowly-growing appearance of negative ads as the election cycle has progressed, and the challenges both candidates face in breaking through the noisy national news cycle.

Professor Shields emphasizes that, regardless of the election outcome, the state budget and the continued affordability of living in New Jersey will be central issues for the next governor. He explains that generally debates are most likely to have an electoral impact if they produce a ‘memorable moment’ that breaks into the news cycle. Professor Shields also briefly touches on turnout patterns, the influence of independent voters, and the broader national implications observers often draw from New Jersey’s (and Virginia’s) elections.

Be sure to check your local listings to catch New Jersey’s second (and final) gubernatorial debate! The debate is hosted by the Bloustein School, ABC7/WABC-TV New York, 6abc/WPVI-TV Philadelphia and New Brunswick Performing Arts Center, on Wednesday, Oct. 8  (7:00-8:00 p.m. ET). It will broadcast live on ABC7/WABC-TV New York, 6abc/WPVI-TV Philadelphia, and across the stations’ streaming and digital platforms. The event is closed to the public.

 

Transcript

Stuart Shapiro 

Welcome to EJB Talks. I’m Stuart Shapiro, the Dean of the Bloustein School. And the purpose of this podcast is to highlight the work my colleagues and our alumni in the fields of policy, planning, and health are doing to make the world a better place.  

Next week, the Bloustein School has the honor of hosting the second New Jersey Gubernatorial debate between candidates Mikie Sherrill and Jack Ciattarelli. In preparation for that, we are dedicating today’s episode to looking at the gubernatorial race and the likely role the debate will play. We’re very lucky to have on Professor Kristoffer Shields, from the Eagleton Institute of Politics Center on the American Governor, to talk with us.  

Welcome to the podcast, Kris! 

Kristoffer Shields 

Thank you so much, Stuart. It’s terrific to be here. 

Stuart Shapiro 

So, before we get to the governor’s race, let me let you hype your center a little bit. Tell us a little bit about the Center on the American Governor, what it is, how it came into being. That kind of stuff. 

Kristoffer Shields 

Yeah, happily! So the Center on the American Governor is, I believe, it’s still the only center in the United States, the only academic-based center in the United States that’s solely dedicated to studying the Office of the Governor.  

So we do research, we build archives, we do analysis on the governor’s seat, the governor’s office across the country. But the way it started is a great New Jersey story where our former governor of New Jersey, Brendan Byrne, was actually moving. And had a whole bunch of stuff in his basement and didn’t know what to do with it. And so, he and his wife got in touch with people at Eagleton and Don Linky, who is a well-known sort of government person in New Jersey.  

And they got together some money to put together an archive and interview people who were involved in the Byrne Administration. And it was so successful that Eagleton decided to do it for Governor Kean, and then for Governors Florio, Whitman, Corzine. And along the way, turned it into a center so that we could do more research on the office, generally. So that’s sort of how it started. We still have all of the archives, but we also do some analysis now. 

Stuart Shapiro 

Wow, it gives me an idea of what to do with all the stuff in my basement. 

Kristoffer Shields 

((laughing)) I don’t think anyone would want my stuff. 

Stuart Shapiro 

Yeah, me either. ((laughing)) I’m sort of flattering myself there. ((laughing)) So let’s move on to the governor’s race. We are about a month out from Election Day. A little bit more than a month out as we tape this, probably a month out by the time people listen to it. What has struck you so far about how the race has unfolded? 

Kristoffer Shields 

Yeah, um. I’ll be interested to hear your take on this as well, but…The word to me so far has been careful. 

Stuart Shapiro 

Yeah. 

Kristoffer Shields 

I feel like the candidates have gotten off to a really, sort of, careful start. I was sort of expecting Labor Day to hit and the race to explode and be what everybody’s talking about and the candidates to be out there. And they have been. There’s certainly been more TV advertising. The PACs [political action committees] have gotten more involved, we’ve seen over the last few weeks.  

But even in that first debate, I felt like both candidates were kind of feeling their way through. They both have some interesting issues. They both have some sort of interesting challenges that they have to overcome. But I felt like both were feeling their way a little bit and trying not to make a big mistake early. Which has made the race feel a little slow, so far to, to my mind. 

Stuart Shapiro 

Yeah. I kind of agree on the slowness so far. I do feel like in the last week or so I have seen a lot more commercials and they are almost uniformly negative. Almost all of the shareable ads are tying Ciattarelli to Trump and almost all the Ciattarelli ads are about Sherrill and electricity prices and the Murphy administration. So, I do feel like it’s heating up a little bit. And I do wonder if we’ll see some of that in the debate on October 8. 

Kristoffer Shields 

Yeah, I think we will. And you’re absolutely right, it’s almost… at times it feels like a proxy battle, right? Between Trump and Murphy, the way the candidates are approaching it. And of course, we also had a couple of big news stories last week about Mikie Sherrill’s military records and time at the Naval Academy. So those are the kinds of things that heat the race up a little bit.  

It’ll be interesting to see. I think the other struggle for the gubernatorial right now is, kind of, breaking through the news cycle at the federal level, when there’s so much national news going on. And certainly if there’s a government shutdown. And I guess by the time this airs, maybe we’ll know the answer to that. That once again that becomes a huge issue in the gubernatorial race. But it also becomes an issue that can overshadow what’s going on, so.  

I agree. I think the next debate, you know, maybe it wasn’t Labor Day that was the day that it all really got going? Maybe it’s October 8, when they’re back on the same stage together. 

Stuart Shapiro 

Yeah, well, let’s hope. But I agree. It is really hard to break through right now. The news cycle has been so… I mean, I find myself overwhelmed and I’m a major news consumer. And I can only imagine how people that are not as interested or devoted to politics feel with the constant overwhelming nature of news right now.  

What are the biggest challenges that the next governor faces, regardless of who wins the race? 

Kristoffer Shields 

I mean, I think in a word, it’s the budget. I guess that’s two words. But budget, budget, budget, budget… 

Stuart Shapiro 

((laughing)) 

Kristoffer Shields 

…I guess would be the answer I would give you. As you well know, we know here at Eagleton as well., everybody at Rutgers knows. The budget, last year here in New Jersey, the state budget was a real challenge. It was really difficult and that’s going to continue to be the case. For the candidates, the buzzword is affordability. What it costs to live in New Jersey once they become governor, that sort of shifts, I think, into budget.  

Stuart Shapiro  

Mmm hmm. 

Kristoffer Shields  

How you legislate those priorities. How you, you know, what are… you can think of the budget as a legal document. It’s also a… it’s a document of priorities. It’s a moral document. It’s, you know, what do you want the state to be? You lay that out in the budget. 

And as you hear the candidates talking a lot this fall about things like tax cuts, about making New Jersey more affordable. You have to remember that New Jersey, constitutionally, is required to have a balanced budget. So, as you reduce revenues, that means you have to reduce spending. Which makes the challenges harder and harder.  

So, I think the big challenge — and that it’ll be, the budget process will have already started when they take over — there’s not a lot of time for a new governor to try to deal with the budget. So I think that’s going to be the sort of, flashing red light, as they take office, even in the transition period and then as they take whoever it is takes the oath of office in January. 

Stuart Shapiro 

And both candidates have, sort of, studiously avoided that. I mean, in the sense that, Sherrill has promises about freezing electricity prices and other things that will likely cost money. And Murphy, Murphy has a lot… not Murphy, Ciattarelli, sorry, has a lot as far as tax cuts are concerned. But they’re going to run into exactly what you talked about, you know? How are they going to pay for those things? And that’s, of course, not something anyone wants to answer on the campaign trail. 

Kristoffer Shields 

Yeah. No, that’s reality, right? And reality doesn’t necessarily sink in until after Election Day. When right now it is, without a doubt, the case that the one thing on most New Jersey voters minds is, how much it costs to live in New Jersey. 

Stuart Shapiro 

Right. 

Kristoffer Shields  

So it makes total sense for the candidates to be focused on that. If I were advising them, I would tell them to be laser-focused on that, even to the expense of national issues. If you’re going to talk about national issues, talk about how they affect people in New Jersey. You’re constantly, sort of, thinking about that, bringing it back to that. So that makes sense.  

But there is this kind of tradition in New Jersey and gubernatorial races that the candidates talk a lot about that. And then they get to the transition and they sit down for that first meeting with the outgoing state treasurer and sort of see the reality and say, oh, no! ((laughing)) You know, now what do we do? And have to either, maybe, step back on some of those promises or find another way to try to balance the budget. And it’s a real challenge. It’s something I think as voters that we should be thinking about, that we should be holding them to account. We should be asking them, OK, that’s great. But what does that mean? If you reduce that tax, if you freeze those rates, what does that mean in other places? So that we get a full sense of what it is that they would do if they were to take over. But we may not know for sure until they’re… whoever is in office. 

Stuart Shapiro 

Right. And then you add in the federal level Medicaid cuts, which are going to have a… which, if they become effective — and obviously there’s some uncertainty about that — that’s tied up in the federal budget negotiations that we talked about earlier. But if they do take effect, that’s a huge hit on every state. And could really waylay anyone’s plans. 

Kristoffer Shields 

And just the general uncertainty, right?  

Stuart Shapiro 

Right.  

Kristoffer Shields  

I mean, there’s a lot of uncertainty in terms of federal money, whether it’s education, the Department of Education, what happens there.  

Stuart Shapiro 

Yup. 

Kristoffer Shields  

What other cuts may be coming down the pike. Anything could happen next spring as the budget is, sort of, being talked about. So again. Trying to work in that flexibility. Trying to work in that unpredictability while also making New Jersey more affordable. It’s a real challenge and it’s going to be very difficult for whoever wins. 

Stuart Shapiro 

Yeah, no, for sure. So, most of my politics experience, government experience is on the Federal level. And my perception of presidential debates has always been, they’re huge deals and then they fade like a week later. 

Kristoffer Shields  

((laughing)) 

Stuart Shapiro  

And we get back to the race as it was right before the debate. How about at the state level? Particularly in a state like New Jersey where there’s not a TV station, you know, we get all our media from New York and Philadelphia. How big an impact can these debates have on a gubernatorial race? 

Kristoffer Shields 

Yeah, I think it’s similar to the federal, except that I would say for gubernatorial debates, sometimes they’re a big deal. ((laughing))  

Stuart Shapiro 

Right. ((laughing)) 

Kristoffer Shields  

And then they fade. Because you hit the nail on the head in terms of what the challenge is here. Which is, getting eyes on the debate. It’s getting people to watch it. And I think you saw that a little bit in the first debate where, you know, both candidates, I thought on the whole did pretty well. But I don’t, you sort of had to go find it.  

Stuart Shapiro 

Right.

Kristoffer Shields 

It wasn’t something you were just going to see when you turned on TV the way the presidential debates are. Now it helps next week’s debate, the October 8th debate, which which you guys are hosting I believe will be on, I think it’s on ABC, New York, right? 

Stuart Shapiro 

That’s right, WABC, exactly. And PVI for those in the Philadelphia market. 

Kristoffer Shields 

So you will get people who are who are watching those stations, who are flipping through the channels, who are, I’m looking for jeopardy, who will find the debate, right? So there will, by definition I think, be more attention paid to this debate. I think there’ll be more eyes on it. And then the question becomes, what the coverage is afterwards. Because like you said, it’s not… There is no New Jersey affiliate for NBC, for ABC, for CBS. So you are relying on the New Jersey news outlets that do exist. But then also, the New York and Philadelphia outlets to cover them. Now again, PVI will cover it. ABC New York will cover it. Because they’re hosting it so that will help.  

But the other big question is whether there’s a moment. If there’s a moment, then that moment will break through, whether good or bad, for either candidate. And then I think you’ll get people talking about it. You’ll get more attention paid to it. You’ll get more analysis of it. But if they’re careful again? If there’s really, sort of, isn’t that big moment, then I think it fades more quickly. And we’re pretty quickly — especially with this polarized as everything is right now, everybody sort of retreats to their corner a little bit — and maybe it doesn’t break through quite as well. 

Stuart Shapiro 

Can you think of any moments in previous New Jersey gubernatorial debates that really did break through? 

Kristoffer Shields 

Not really. ((laughing)) 

Stuart Shapiro 

Yeah, that’s my…. 

Kristoffer Shields 

Yeah. Honestly, no. ((laughing)) 

Stuart Shapiro 

That’s my perception as well. I have trouble remembering those and wonder if that’s a guideline for what lies ahead. 

Kristoffer Shields 

It’s possible. I keep telling my students — I turned 50 this year — so it’s possible that my brain’s just not firing and I’m not landing on it in the moment. 

Stuart Shapiro 

((laughing)) 

Kristoffer Shields 

But no, I don’t think it… I think, the breakout moments in past gubernatorial campaigns in New Jersey have been more clips taken from other events. 

Stuart Shapiro 

Right. 

Kristoffer Shields  

So, whether round tables or, you know, the clip of Phil Murphy that Jack Ciattarelli had really used a lot last time. Not necessarily from a debate, but again, going back to the negative campaigning, right? We’ve already seen some of that this year. 

Stuart Shapiro 

Yep. 

Kristoffer Shields  

Clips taken from other places and used in advertisements that could come from a debate, but I think it generally doesn’t. 

Stuart Shapiro 

Yep. So, because of our having elections on odd years, unlike most places, we get a lot of national attention to our gubernatorial race. And of course, immediately afterwards everyone’s going to be reading the tea leaves, particularly given the news flood that comes out of Washington. What does it mean? What does it mean for the national political climate? How much of that tea leaf reading is merited, and how much of it is, ‘well, we have to write something.’ 

Kristoffer Shields 

Yeah, I think there’s some of both. I tend to think that that’s a little bit overrated or overstated.  

Stuart Shapiro 

Mmm hmm. 

Kristoffer Shields  

That the tea leaves that come out of New Jersey. I mean, it is true that New Jersey is a diverse state. It’s fairly representative of the country as a whole. So in that sense, I think you did… it is potentially a bellwether. But again, particularly in today’s fast political environment, you know. What’s important, what matters to people in November of 2025 might be very different by November of 2026. It might be very different by February 2026, right? 

Stuart Shapiro 

Right. Might be really different by the next day  ((laughing)) 

Kristoffer Shields 

The day after Election Day, right? ((laughing)) So trying to look ahead a year, I think is difficult. I will say that one thing that I am really curious about in this gubernatorial that I think could give some sense of where things stand at least now is, turn out. And particularly turn out by party.  

Stuart Shapiro 

Yes.  

Kristoffer Shields  

So do Democrats turn out heavy? There is this trend in New Jersey that the party that wins the presidential, loses the gubernatorial the next year, in part I think because the losing party is more motivated, is more engaged. 

Stuart Shapiro 

Yes. 

Kristoffer Shields 

There’s a sense that that could be the case. It’s certainly true that Democrats in New Jersey do not like Donald Trump and do not like the Trump administration. So are they motivated to turn out to vote against Jack Ciattarelli, or really just to have a voice heard if nothing else? Or do you see higher turnout amongst Republicans who feel like they’re on a win streak and the New Jersey starting to move to the right? And they feel that they have more of a voice? So I think those are some of the questions that I have. Who’s motivated, who shows up to vote? That might tell us a little bit about how people are feeling as we move into the as we move into the new year. 

Stuart Shapiro 

Yeah. And certainly — and this has been true of the Trump years entirely — democratic performances in special elections and in elections when Donald Trump is not on the ballot have had huge turnout advantages. And it will be very interesting because this is about as high profile of a race as we get New Jersey. No incumbent. Contested race. As high a profile race as we get without Trump on the ballot. And to see if those patterns hold, I think, will be fascinating. 

Kristoffer Shields 

Yeah, especially given that overall turn out will certainly be much lower than it was a year ago, right?  

Stuart Shapiro 

Right.  

Kristoffer Shields  

Just because it’s a gubernatorial at the top versus the presidential, so you know that overall turn out is going to be lower. So how does that affect the percentages on each side that show up? And then the other thing that we should mention is, that will be really interesting and I think important to note is, and will probably decide the race, frankly, is how the unaffiliated voters breakdown.  

Stuart Shapiro 

Right.  

Kristoffer Shields  

Which way they, sort of, end up leaning and by how much? Because to win the gubernatorial as a Republican in New Jersey, you probably need to win a majority of the of the independent unaffiliated vote. There was a recent poll that showed it was a very close race within, I think a point. And in that poll, Jack Ciattarelli was doing really well amongst independent voters. If that’s the case, then that certainly is good news for him. But that also might tell us something about… it might tell us something that we might not have expected about the overall electorate as well. 

Stuart Shapiro 

Yep. For sure. So there is one other governor’s race. There’s the Virginia governor’s race. I’ve only paid a little bit of attention to that. How is that one going? 

Kristoffer Shields 

Yeah, I think that one is, I think the assumption, at least, that the general consensus is that, the Democrat in that race has a more stable lead...

Stuart Shapiro 

Mmm hmm. 

Kristoffer Shields  

…than either candidate would have in New Jersey. It’s an interesting race. The Democrat, is a former member of the U.S. House. The Republican is the Lieutenant Governor, but is a very conservative or very sort of MAGA conservative Republican.  

Stuart Shapiro 

Hmm.  

Kristoffer Shields  

Which sort of gives that race, you know. Here where you have Jack Ciattarelli, I would say sort of trying to walk the line a little bit… 

Stuart Shapiro 

Right. 

Kristoffer Shields  

….between embracing Trump, but also maybe not completely? In that race in Virginia, you have a Republican who very much, if anything, would say that Trump is not MAGA enough. Which sort of creates a different environment for the race to be run in. Also interestingly, though, the Republican candidate, if she won, would be the first Black woman elected governor in U.S. history.  

Stuart Shapiro 

Wow.  

Kristoffer Shields  

So that’s sort of an interesting side note of that race. Where you know in New Jersey, we could elect the second woman to be Governor. First Democratic woman to be Governor in New Jersey history. In Virginia, it would actually set a national first. 

Stuart Shapiro 

Wow that would be something else. 

Yeah, no, it will be interesting to see. I have wondered if that race does stay at it’s margin, whether more national money will come into the New Jersey race because it is probably the most contested race in the country. And the New York mayor’s race doesn’t seem terribly close either, although it certainly soaks up a lot of the media attention. 

Kristoffer Shields  

Yeah. 

Stuart Shapiro  

Okay. As a final word here, and you’ve talked about this a little bit but I want to give you a chance to circle back to it for our students, for anyone watching the debate next week. What should they be looking for? 

Kristoffer Shields 

I’ll be looking for a number of things. I’ll say that. I think the first thing that I’ll be looking for is how the candidates, sort of, act towards each other? 

Stuart Shapiro 

Mmm hmm. 

Kristoffer Shields  

What’s the vibe in the room, right? How are they addressing each other? Are they making eye contact? You know, what’s the sort of dynamic between the two candidates, I think is interesting? And I think the second thing that I would note is, going back to what we were talking about before. About this being a proxy race in some ways. How is it that Jack Ciattarelli navigates separating himself from Donald Trump, without upsetting Trump voters, who sort of are his base?  

Stuart Shapiro 

Right. 

Kristoffer Shields  

You know, Republican base in New Jersey. And then similarly, how does Mikie Sherrill separate herself from the Murphy administration? But also meet the challenge of speaking to progressive voters in New Jersey.  

Stuart Shapiro 

Yep.  

Kristoffer Shields  

Because that’s the base that she really needs to shore up on. The voters who may have voted for Ras Baraka or even Steve Fulop in the primary. Mikie Sherrill, it’s not that they’re necessarily going to vote for Jack Ciattarelli, but she really needs them to show up to vote… 

Stuart Shapiro 

Yes. 

Kristoffer Shields  

…in November, if she if she’s going to have a chance to win. So how does she reach out to those voters while also sort of creating some space between her and Murphy so that it’s not just, you know, kind of Murphy redux?  

And then the last thing I’ll mention is for students, for other people as well. One thing that I always tell people to watch for in debates is, if you have an issue that you’re passionate about. If you have that one thing that you think is really important, that really interests you. Watch to see if it comes up. See if this is something that’s on the mind of, whether it’s the moderators, or the candidates. Look to see who brings it up. Because that is important to know. Who seems to be more educated on that issue? Who seems to have more of a stance on that issue? And if it doesn’t come up, to think about how you can get involved to make sure that this thing that you care about comes up next time, right? That it’s in front of the candidates because if they’re not talking about it now, they probably will not be thinking about it when they take office on next January. So if it’s something that you care about. It’s something that you need to be sort of aware of who is bringing it up and whether it’s an issue in the in the race. 

Stuart Shapiro 

That’s fantastic. Just to remind listeners, the debate is on October 8, 7:00 PM on WABC and WPVI. Professor Shields, thank you so much for coming on. Maybe we’ll have another chat after the election. 

Kristoffer Shields 

This is a blast! Anytime! 

Stuart Shapiro 

Fantastic! Also, a big thank you to our producer, Tamara Swedberg, and to Karyn Olsen. We’ll be back in a week or two with another episode with experts from the Bloustein School. Until then, stay safe.